228 /342
終身癌症保險之評價
228
表
11 1996
至
2011
年
0-30
歲男性門診次數之分配比較結果
15
觀察
年度
MLE
AIC
BIC
ZTNB ZTPO Geo ZTNB ZTPO Geo ZTNB ZTPO Geo
1996 -10,720.3 -11,229.4 -20,643.1 21,444.5 22,460.9 41,288.2 21,456.8 22,467.0 41,294.3
1997 -10,417.4 -11,133.2 -21,536.8 20,838.8 22,268.5 43,075.7 20,851.2 22,274.6 43,081.8
1998 -10,665.0 -11,241.5 -20,978.9 21,333.9 22,484.9 41,959.8 21,346.2 22,491.1 41,965.9
1999 -11,514.9 -12,077.2 -23,356.3 23,033.8 24,156.5 46,714.6 23,046.2 24,162.7 46,720.8
2000 -12,047.8 -12,555.2 -23,945.2 24,099.6 25,112.4 47,892.5 24,112.0 25,118.6 47,898.7
2001 -12,678.4 -13,152.9 -24,514.5 25,360.7 26,307.8 49,031.0 25,373.3 26,314.1 49,037.2
2002 -13,717.5 -14,177.6 -26,250.3 27,439.1 28,357.3 52,502.6 27,451.8 28,363.6 52,508.9
2003 -14,702.1 -15,180.3 -28,988.1 29,408.1 30,362.6 57,978.2 29,420.9 30,369.0 57,984.6
2004 -15,756.0 -16,262.8 -31,066.1 31,516.0 32,527.7 62,134.2 31,528.9 32,534.1 62,140.6
2005 -16,071.3 -16,606.5 -31,880.7 32,146.6 33,214.9 63,763.3 32,159.6 33,221.4 63,769.8
2006 -16,492.8 -17,029.5 -32,241.6 32,989.6 34,061.1 64,485.3 33,002.6 34,067.6 64,491.8
2007 -16,759.8 -17,281.7 -32,572.2 33,523.7 34,565.5 65,146.4 33,536.7 34,572.0 65,152.9
2008 -17,473.5 -17,989.2 -34,404.6 34,951.0 35,980.4 68,811.2 34,964.1 35,987.0 68,817.8
2009 -17,658.7 -18,186.7 -34,408.5 35,321.4 36,375.3 68,819.0 35,334.6 36,381.9 68,825.5
2010 -17,784.2 -18,309.9 -33,941.3 35,572.3 36,621.9 67,884.6 35,585.5 36,628.5 67,891.1
2011 -17,960.4 -18,517.2 -34,280.9 35,924.9 37,036.3 68,563.7 35,938.1 37,042.9 68,570.3
表
12 1996
至
2011
年
0-30
歲男性門診費用之分配比較結果
觀察
年度
MLE
AIC
BIC
ZTNB ZTPO Geo ZTNB ZTPO Geo ZTNB ZTPO Geo
1996 -66,321 -87,146 -190,487 132,645 174,295 380,977 132,662 174,303 380,985
1997 -53,765 -73,499 -133,441 107,534 147,000 266,884 107,551 147,008 266,893
1998 -57,368 -79,501 -142,875 114,739 159,004 285,753 114,756 159,013 285,761
1999 -65,977 -90,959 -170,516 131,957 181,919 341,034 131,974 181,928 341,043
2000 -72,052 -99,234 -178,117 144,108 198,469 356,236 144,125 198,478 356,244
2001 -75,004 -104,879 -187,726 150,012 209,761 375,454 150,030 209,769 375,463
2002 -82,866 -117,189 -225,762 165,735 234,380 451,526 165,753 234,389 451,535
2003 -94,042 -132,018 -268,964 188,088 264,039 537,930 188,106 264,048 537,939
2004 -101,955 -143,596 -301,656 203,914 287,193 603,314 203,932 287,202 603,323
2005 -105,925 -151,913 -355,097 211,854 303,828 710,196 211,872 303,837 710,205
2006 -110,333 -159,694 -404,409 220,669 319,390 808,820 220,687 319,399 808,829
2007 -113,236 -164,570 -434,776 226,476 329,143 869,553 226,494 329,152 869,562
2008 -117,588 -173,067 -459,396 235,181 346,136 918,794 235,199 346,145 918,803
2009 -116,221 -173,330 -464,366 232,447 346,662 928,734 232,465 346,671 928,743
2010 -122,194 -180,873 -504,632 244,392 361,748 1009,265 244,410 361,757 1,009,275
2011 -118,003 -173,861 -504,322 236,010 347,724 1008,647 236,028 347,733 1,008,656
15 MLE
值越大越佳，
AIC
與
BIC
值越小越佳。