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臺大管理論叢

27

卷第

2

91

RMB basket. Moreover, by considering all the officially disclosed currencies in the RMB

basket, we can get more insight into the operation of the new exchange rate regime and avoid

the omitted variable problem in estimation. Lastly, it is well documented in the literature that

the estimation results may depend on the choice of the numeraire. We consider the Swiss

franc, the US dollar and the Special Drawing Rights as the numeraire and examine if the

estimates are sensitive to the choice of the numeraire.

Research Limitations/Implications

Our findings imply the prospect of the RMB serving as an anchor currency in East Asia

is poor. Because the RMB remains closely pegged to the US dollar, and the US dollar

remains the dominant anchor currency in East Asia, as evidenced in Hwang (2013), East

Asian countries do not need to shift weights from the US dollar to the RMB in their

exchange rate arrangements. As China has been generally following a gradualist approach in

economic reform and the RMB exchange rate regime greatly affects China’s macroeconomic

stability, economic growth, and employment, China probably will not soon adopt a managed

floating exchange rate regime in the true sense, let alone a freely floating exchange rate

regime.