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臺大管理論叢
第
27
卷第
2
期
91
RMB basket. Moreover, by considering all the officially disclosed currencies in the RMB
basket, we can get more insight into the operation of the new exchange rate regime and avoid
the omitted variable problem in estimation. Lastly, it is well documented in the literature that
the estimation results may depend on the choice of the numeraire. We consider the Swiss
franc, the US dollar and the Special Drawing Rights as the numeraire and examine if the
estimates are sensitive to the choice of the numeraire.
Research Limitations/Implications
Our findings imply the prospect of the RMB serving as an anchor currency in East Asia
is poor. Because the RMB remains closely pegged to the US dollar, and the US dollar
remains the dominant anchor currency in East Asia, as evidenced in Hwang (2013), East
Asian countries do not need to shift weights from the US dollar to the RMB in their
exchange rate arrangements. As China has been generally following a gradualist approach in
economic reform and the RMB exchange rate regime greatly affects China’s macroeconomic
stability, economic growth, and employment, China probably will not soon adopt a managed
floating exchange rate regime in the true sense, let alone a freely floating exchange rate
regime.