Page 101 - 臺大管理論叢第32卷第1期

NTU Management Review
Vol. 32 No. 1 Apr. 2022, 93-126
DOI:10.6226/NTUMR.202204_32(1).0003

Internet Celebrity Economy: Exploring the Value
of Viewers’ Comment Features and Live Streamers’
Marketing Strategies in Forecasting Revenue

網紅經濟：檢驗觀眾留言特質和直播主行銷策略對營收之

預測價值

Yu-Hsiang Lin, Department of Urban Industrial Management and Marketing, University of Taipei
林郁翔 / 臺北市立大學都會產業經營與行銷學系
Li-Chung Jen, College of Business, National Taipei University of Business
任立中 / 國立臺北商業大學財經學院
Received 2019/5, Final revision received 2021/9

Abstract
Few past studies have tackled the relationship between marketing strategies and revenue
forecasts of live streamers, not to mention the influence of streamer heterogeneity. This
study applies the Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model to examine the predictive effects
of viewers’ comments and streamer’ behaviors on viewers’ gift-sending behavior in
live streaming while considering the effect of streamer heterogeneity. In particular, we
empirically analyze 38,183 samples of time data from 10 food live-stream samples. We
find that the effects of viewers’ comment features and streamers’ marketing strategies on
viewers’ gift-sending behavior are mainly influenced by the cross-level effect of streamers’
heterogeneities. These results reveal that existing live-streaming studies might have
overlooked the impact of streamers’ heterogeneities, offering only biased conclusions.
Finally, the model proposed in this study has good predictive accuracy for live streamer
revenue.
【Keywords】word-of-mouth, discrete emotion theory, live streamer’s behavior and
characteristics, gift-sending, Hierarchical Bayesian model
摘 要
過去有關直播主的行銷策略與營收預測之研究十分匱乏，且忽略考慮直播主異質性之
影響。本研究應用層級貝氏模型，檢驗在考慮直播主異質性下，觀眾的留言特質和
直播主行銷策略對觀眾送禮行為之預測價值。本研究針對 10 部美食直播共 38,183 筆
時間資料進行分析，發現留言特質和直播主行銷策略對觀眾送禮行為之效果主要受到
直播主異質性的跨層次影響。此顯示過去忽略直播主異質性影響的研究結論可能有偏
誤。最後，本研究提出的模型對直播主營收有很好的預測力。
【關鍵字】 口碑、分立情緒理論、直播主行為特質、送禮、層級貝氏模型

專題主編：王貞雅教授、白佩玉教授、黃俊堯教授、謝依靜教授（以上依姓氏筆畫排序）

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