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終身癌症保險之評價
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largest nationwide population databases in the world, and covers almost all of the 23 million
residents of Taiwan. This study uses data from the NHIRD and evaluates the cancer
morbidity rate, the continued treatment rate and the medical cost. By analyzing the changes
in the frequency and severity of cancer, this study reveals that all the parameters have
increased significantly from 1996 to 2011. In terms of the total number of patients with
cancer, the number of male patients have increased by 284%, from 49,269 in 1996 to
189,413 in 2011, and the number of female patients have increased by 287%, from 56,122 in
1996 to 217,144 in 2011. In terms of physician visits, the average number of visits by male
patients have increased by 39.55%, from 9.38 times per year in 1996 to 13.09 times per year
in 2011, and the average number of visits by female patients have increased by 35.53%, from
8.64 times per year in 1996 to 11.72 times per year in 2011. In addition, the average cost of a
physician visit by a male patient have increased by 83.37%, from 2,927.72 New Taiwan
Dollars (NTDs) per visit in 1996 to 5,368.65 NTDs per visit in 2011, while that of a visit by
a female patient have increased by 104.69%, from 2,527.43 NTDs per visit in 1996 to
5,173.37 NTDs per visit in 2011.
Based on the detailed results of analyses of the cancer frequency and severity data, we
can identify the pattern of cancer incidence in Taiwan in the past decade. The upward trend
of cancer morbidity has significantly increased from 1996 to 2011; regardless of age, gender,
or calendar year. Owing to differences in the types of cancer seen in the different genders,
males and females have differing cancer morbidities during their lifetime. Before the age of
20, males and females have a similar cancer morbidity, while between the ages of 20 and 50,
cancer morbidity in females is higher than in males. However, after the age of 50, the
situation changes, with cancer morbidity in males becoming higher than that in females.
Analysis of treatment rate and continued treatment rate show that these parameters have
different patterns of change with respect to calendar year: the first-year treatment rate has a
significant upward trend from 1998 to 2006 regardless of gender, and the treatment rate in
females is higher than that in males. The continued treatment rate has an upward trend from
1998 to 2001 with respect to the continued treatment period, and the continued treatment rate
in females is more than 50% higher than the continued treatment rate in males. The average
cost of a female patient’s physician visit is lower than that of a male patient.
In health insurance pricing literature, three methods are commonly used to estimate the
cancer premium: the two-part model, the collective risk model, and the Markov process
model. The two-part model has been used extensively to estimate demand responses to
health insurance prices. For example, to model aggregated medical expenditure, the two-part