臺大管理論叢 NTU Management Review VOL.29 NO.1

Post-Disaster Grain Supply Chain Management with Supplier Hoarding and Regime Intervention 26 1. Introduction Disrupted grain supply chain management after a disaster has become a crucial global topic because of the extreme weather events around the world. For example, the highest temperature on record in India occurred in May of 2016 and left at least 330 million people without enough water for their daily needs (Perry and Wu, 2016). An extended period of extreme heat happened in Russia, which resulted in a drop in the domestic grain output from 97 million tons in 2009 to an approximate 60 million tons in 2010 (Kolesnikova, 2010). The derived agriculture loss was approximately US$15 billion (Kramer, 2010). Similarly, a fatal drought struck the US in 2012, which resulted in agricultural production losses, and impacted the equilibrium of grain market supply and demand. The lower than expected production contributed to an estimated economic loss of US$7 billion (Vergara and Zuba, 2012). Apparently, the climate change effects will continue to have increasing negative impacts on grain owing to exceeding tipping points in the Globe System. Thus, climate disruptions to grain supply chain management have increased in nearly half a century and are speculated to become an increasingly challenging global issue in the coming quarter century (Melillo, Richmond, and Yohe, 2014). To alleviate the shock of disrupted grain supply chain, especially the grain producers, regimes have begun to adopt various instruments for the post-disaster grain supply chain management. For instance, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has supported several programs for nearly a century, including the federal crop insurance program, which has the greatest expenditure, and averaged US$ 5.9 billion in annual disaster payments between 2006 and 2011. The federal crop insurance program provides a disaster insurance by protecting against loss in revenue after natural disasters (Stubbs, 2016). Furthermore, regimes have also dedicated themselves to stabilizing the grain price in the next half century to control the perpetual food crisis after disasters (Cummings Jr, 2012). According to the China Meteorological Administration, the damage of 50 million tons of grain annually is caused by weather-related disasters (Balis, 2011). As grain prices rise, the Chinese regime becomes involved in the grain market to stabilize grain prices by providing financial aid (Li and Zhang, 2012). However, grain supply chains have the following operational characteristics which make them challenging to manage after a disaster. First of all, global climate change is one of the most significant seasonal factors influencing agricultural production. When the