臺大管理論叢 NTU Management Review VOL.29 NO.2

91 NTU Management Review Vol. 29 No. 2 Aug. 2019 An Estimation Model for Evaluating the Impact of Changing Officers’ Minimum Time in Grade and Maximum Time in Service on Officers’ Future Pension Payment 1. Purpose/Objective To avoid failure of the current servicemen pension fund system, the Ministry of Defense intends to increase the service time in grades for retirement. However, how long should the service time be extended? Could this extended service time improve the financial situation of the pension fund system? There are many combinations to extend the service time in each grade for retirement. Which combination is the best? In addition, the promotion channel formed by these combinations is also lengthened. Will it cause the promotion channel blockage (i.e., the promotion prospects in certain grades will be decreased)? Since the service time in grades for retirement is extended, for the sake of career management, the minimum time in each grade for promotion (i.e., the minimum service years that the officers must have in the rank before they are eligible for promotion to the next higher rank) should be adjusted accordingly. However, the lengths of minimum time for promotion and maximum time for retirement of each grade will influence whether the promotion channel is smooth or not. They will also influence the number of people who receive pension, which in turn affects the officers’ future pension payment. Until now there has not been a model which can be used to answer these questions. Therefore, the purposes of this study include: (1) constructing a Modified Steady State Career Structure Model (MSSCSM), which consists of minimum time in grades for promotion, maximum service time in grades for retirement, authorized establishment, and wastage rates, (2) establishing an Estimation Model for Military Officers Future Pension Payment (EMMOFPP), which combines MSSCSM into the model, (3) using MSSCSM and EMMOFPP to simulate the changes of the current minimum time in grades for promotion, and the maximum service time in grades for retirement, and to understand the impacts of these changes on promotion channel and the new retired officers’ future yearly pension payment. Cheng-Liang Yang , Department of Information Management, Tatung University